Bitcoin Speculators' BTC Holdings at Lowest Since $69K All-Time Highs
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Short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH), who are investors holding the cryptocurrency for a short period (155 days or less), have reduced their supply to 2.56 million BTC. However, there are warnings that the current state of the Bitcoin market might be imbalanced, according to Glassnode, an analytics firm.
Bitcoin Speculators Face Potential Unrealized Losses as Market Imbalance Grows
Research indicates that Bitcoin speculators are causing a phase of "exhaustion and apathy" across the market. Glassnode's weekly newsletter, "The Week On-Chain," discusses the decreasing conviction among these short-term holders.
Following several months of stagnant Bitcoin prices, there's growing frustration among market participants, leading to predictions of potential further price declines. Bulls (buyers) are struggling to break resistance levels, while sellers are encountering multiple support zones between $29,000 and $25,000.
One key metric discussed is the STH cost basis, representing the realized price of short-term holders. This cost basis has acted as support in 2023, but it's rising rapidly and currently stands at $28,600. In contrast, the cost basis for long-term holders (LTH) is much lower, at $20,300. The divergence between these two cost bases suggests that recent buyers have acquired Bitcoin at a relatively higher price.
Researchers suggest that the market might be "top heavy," meaning that even a small drop in BTC prices could put short-term holders in the red. This distribution of supply resembles previous periods during recoveries from bear markets on a macro scale. However, in the short term, it's seen as a potentially imbalanced market, with price-sensitive investors at risk of unrealized losses.
Strong Conviction Persists Among Bitcoin Hodlers
Despite this, speculators seem to be reconsidering their market exposure. The portion of BTC supply controlled by short-term holders is decreasing, while long-term holders now have more control than ever before.
Glassnode notes that long-term holders' supply has reached an all-time high of 14.6 million BTC, while short-term holder supply is at a multi-year low of 2.56 million BTC. This suggests that Bitcoin investors' conviction remains high, with few willing to sell their holdings.
The last time short-term holders had such a small presence in the market was in October 2021, just before the Bitcoin price reached its all-time high of $69,000 against the US dollar.
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